J. Miller and Company Blog

August 17, 2008

Who’s a pessimist? Economic modeling & the future.

After failing physics and thereby failing to become an undergraduate in the school of architecture, I studied economics. This was before economic modeling gained the enormous advantage of computers to extract data from multiple sources and thereby build future assumptions. This ability is now called ‘econometrics’ and adds to the art of economics a scientific and statistical filter which wasn’t available to me as an college student.

Now statistical modeling is the foundation upon which current economic predictions are based. However, they’re based on the probability of any given event occurring in the future. And typically they’re based on the probability of a few of the many possible events occurring simultaneously.

Nouriel Roubini is one of the few strong voices in economic research who “get into everything”. According to the article in the NY Times Magazine 08/17/08 he predicted the current collapse. Now he predicts even an even further deepening of economic woes.

“America’s economic problems are deeper than a housing crisis, Roubini argues. ‘We have a subprime financial system,’ he says, ‘not a subprime mortgage market.’

Read the entire article:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/17/magazine/17pessimist-t.html

Economics and politics ,